EU towards full ban on Russian oil. Will that stop the war? Putin’s former economic adviser bet it will.

London, 2 May 2022 – Putin’s ex chief economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, who now lives in the United States, said in an interview to BBC News last 10 April that if Western countries “would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia… I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped”.

The moment has finally come: a full embargo on oil is on sight as Wednesday EU chiefs of diplomacy will gather to smooth the process and cut procedure for full stop on oil imports from Moscow.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing future action plan to reduce EU dependency on Russian oil and gas imports (27 April 2022)

This is going to be the major sanction so far and it makes clear even the slightest idea of lifting sanctions is out of the Ukraine-Russia negotiating table, though Russian Foreign Minister Sergeij Lavrov tried to squeeze in this chance stating that talks on that were ongoing with Ukraine negotiating team. Another Lavrov’s lie dismissed by Zelensky.

He made clear that Ukraine and Russia are not discussing the issue of lifting sanctions during the talks “I do not know this information, which the Russian Foreign Minister said. Exactly in certain agreements that have not yet happened, which were discussed by groups, representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, the issue of lifting sanctions has not been raised and can not be raised”, Ukrainian president said.

The huge hit on Russian economy (recession forecast 8 to 15%) is upcoming and it’s not to be given for granted Russians will react massively despite repression and fear of ending in prison for years only for speaking the truth.

The immediate reaction of the Kremlin to the news of EU unity on oil embargo?

It could be this:

A ‘general mobilization’ leading to an intensification of combat on the ground in Ukraine, would imply a major war impacting not just Ukraine and Western allies but Russian people and the consequence of that would be unpredictable not just to us but for Russia as well.