London 2 Aug 2019 – Distance in the polls between Conservative and Labour is growing as radical Brexit is going forward and ambiguous positions prevail within Corbyn’s team making the Labour leader increasingly contested within and outside the party. Lib Dem signed a definitive victory for the party and, moreover, for the wider opposition, by winning the by-elections in the Welsh constituency of Brecon with 43% (where Labour stops at 5%). This left the newly formed government 320 to 319 MPs (Lab, LibDem, SNP, Greens+Sinn Fein+others combined). Such an inconsistent majority could lead to general elections sooner following a vote on no-deal, But chances of defections must not be excluded: one single MP could make British history. But still a no confidence vote could divert the rush towards the cliff edge.
New elections, though, might not turn handy to Corbyn’s Labour: 22% consensus vs 32% of Conservative says YouGov (24% to 34% Ipsos Mori). And the main political conundrum is the reluctancy to ally and form an actual opposition front which might total 36% (all infighting parts included). But power sharing or a possible Lib-Lab+ coalition government is not in Corbyn’s plan nor in the one of his major ‘stakeholder’: Unite the Union.
In this general frame Corbyn’s portrait appears increasingly darker. Latest Ipsos Mori data show 62% of British would like Labour to change leader before next general elections, which are seen as upcoming. Therefore two factors explain why Labour Party and Corbyn have not yet brought forward a no-confidence vote leading to new elections: firstly because of the 10 point percentage distance from Tories in voting intention, secondly because new polls would lead to the end of Corbyn’s contested leadership.